May 19, 2025 — Wildfire season, nationally, typically begins in May. Here in New York, it begins a little earlier – from when the snow melts in March through October. Weather-driven events like wildfires have become more common across the country and much more intense over the years. That’s why Governor Kathy Hochul announced in October 2024 that the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) has partnered with New York State Mesonet to produce a real-time weather data and forecasting tool to help monitor conditions and alert New Yorkers to the potential for wildfires.
For DEC, the forecasting tool, used to make the Fire Danger Rating Area Risk Map, was a long time coming. For years, DEC staff collected weather data using a small number of aging stations. Abby Komarc, a PEF member since 2022, is an Air Pollution Meteorologist for DEC. She said that a contract with the Division of Forest Protection provided the funding needed for this project to finally take off and for the partnership with NYS Mesonet to take place.
Mesonet is a network of 127 weather stations set up across the state. Each county and borough in New York has at least one. The stations collect information about changing weather conditions across the state. Komarc said that the contract that formally allowed DEC and Mesonet to finally connect in a meaningful way was in the works for years and she came into doing this work at the most opportune moment.
“The funding essentially allowed for a lot of background data system development,” said Komarc. “My role is to actually use that data to develop the forecasts for the map.”
Kormac’s Fire Danger Rating Map gives New Yorkers a view of the entire state’s potential fire risk. It is sectioned into 10 Fire Danger Rating Areas (FDRA) that group Northern Erie, Monroe, Cayuga and Jefferson County into a “Lake Ontario Plains” section. The Hudson Valley section stretches from Schenectady down to Westchester. The Long Island map includes all five boroughs of New York City, as well as Richmond and Suffolk counties.
Komarc said that the reason for splitting the sections into 10 areas that include counties that may often not be considered together on normal maps is based on the geography of each area. The areas share weather patterns and often have similar vegetation and wood that is a burn risk.
“New York is so much bigger than we think,” said Komarc. “The beautiful thing about New York is that the areas are so different and there are such specific climatological characteristics in each region. The tricky part, however, is that some areas are really big and a high-risk rating for one of the fire danger areas does not always equal high risk for the entire area. It’s actually the highest risk within that area.”
The map is color-coded based on these danger ratings. Green signifies a low risk of fires, while red signals an extreme risk of fires that may start quickly, spread furiously and burn intensely. A Red Flag warning is a temporary warning that indicates the presence of a mixture of temperature, wind, humidity and other factors which can contribute to a rapid spreading wildfire.
“Looking at the map gives you a great way to assess the chances of wildfires,” said Komarc. “One of the largest causes of fires can be campfires, especially in New York. So, when you see those moderate or high ratings, be sure to take precautions to make sure your fires are extinguished or managed properly.”
DEC and Komarc are hopeful that the map will be useful to New Yorkers as fire season and warm weather comes to New York. Though the map is a great first step and a useful tool, Komarc said that DEC also communicates as much as possible with the public when there are elevated risks.
“Our forest rangers work closely with the National Weather Service to help notify the public when the forecast calls for elevated fire weather conditions,” she said. “The weather service has a good rapid communication system that can help get our Red Flag warnings out to the public quickly.”
In a perfect world, there would be no wildfires in New York. The reality, however, is that last year there were 122 wildfires recorded. Komarc said that the map seeks to drive that number lower by increasing awareness, but New Yorkers still have to be safe when it comes to fire management.
“Even if conditions on the map show fire danger is low, it doesn’t mean that fires cannot occur or get out of control,” said Komarc. “Help the rangers help you by burning smartly and reach out to us any time for any concerns or questions and to help us do our job better.”
Editor’s Note: The Fire Danger Rating Area Risk map is updated daily. New Yorkers are encouraged to check it when planning camping trips or other outdoor excursions. If you see signs of a wildfire, call DEC Ranger Dispatch at (833) 697-7264.